Prediction Market Accounting for Trading Firms, Market Makers & Professional Traders

Forbes Best-In-State Top CPA for 2025 and 2026

Featured in Forbes for "Leading the Charge on Crypto Accounting": Read the Forbes Feature

Camuso CPA provides transaction accounting, reconciliation, subledger and general-ledger support, period-end close, financial reporting, and book-to-tax support for prediction-market trading firms, market makers, funds, and professional traders.

Digital-asset accounting and tax practice established in 2016. Providing dedicated prediction-market accounting and tax services for professional trading activity.

Camuso CPA
2026 Report
Prediction Market Research

State of U.S. Prediction-Market Tax and Accounting 2026

Camuso CPA’s 2026 report examines the separate accounting, federal tax, information-reporting, and substantiation issues arising as prediction markets expand into professional trading and market-making activity. The report addresses transaction-level records, reconciliation, position and settlement data, book-to-tax reporting, and the federal tax questions that depend on those underlying records.

Read the Report →

Prediction Market Activity Requires Transaction-Level Accounting

Professional prediction-market trading can produce large transaction volumes across multiple venues, automated and systematic strategies, substantial open positions, maker rebates, liquidity incentives, fees, and other trading-related activity.

The accounting records provided by a venue may be useful source data, but they are not necessarily a complete set of books. Professional firms still need to determine whether their transaction activity, cash and venue balances, open and resolved positions, fees, rebates, incentives, and other material items are captured accurately in the accounting records and reconciled to the general ledger.

The accounting requirements become more significant as firms add market-making activity, automation, multiple venues, additional owners or entities, outside capital, recurring financial reporting, or audit and diligence requirements.

Camuso CPA works with prediction-market trading firms, market makers, funds, and professional traders on transaction reconstruction, reconciliation, subledger and general-ledger accounting, period-end close, financial reporting, and the accounting records required to support year-end tax workpapers and reporting.

Patrick Camuso | Forbes Best-In-State Top CPA
Patrick Camuso, CPA. Forbes 2025 Best-in-State Top CPA. Featured in Business Insider, Marketwatch, Finops and Morningstar for prediction market tax reporting expertise.

Our Prediction Market Accounting Process

Step 1: Trading Activity, Entity & Records Review

We review the firm’s prediction-market activity, venues, trading strategies, transaction volume, entity structure, ownership, available source data, existing books, and current reporting process. This allows us to determine the accounting scope and identify gaps in the records before work begins.

Step 2: Accounting Methodology & Reporting Structure

We establish the accounting treatment and reporting structure appropriate for the firm’s activity, including the level of transaction detail required, subledger and general-ledger requirements, account mapping, reconciliation procedures, and period-end reporting needs.

Step 3: Reconstruction, Reconciliation & Subledger Accounting

Where required, we reconstruct and reconcile prediction-market activity from available source records and incorporate that activity into the firm’s accounting records. For high-volume trading firms and market makers, this may include maintaining transaction-level subledger records that support the general ledger and period-end close.

Step 4: Ongoing Close & Financial Reporting

For recurring engagements, we maintain the accounting on the agreed reporting cadence, including reconciliations, period-end close, financial reporting, year-end workpapers, and coordination with the firm’s tax reporting and other professional advisers where applicable.

Prefer to book a time directly?

Prefer to reach us directly? Email info@camusocpa.com or call (704) 249-3179.

Who We Help: Prediction-Market Trading Firms, Market Makers & Professional Traders

Camuso CPA works with professional prediction-market participants whose transaction volume, trading strategies, entity structure, or reporting requirements extend beyond ordinary bookkeeping.

Our clients include founder-led trading firms, market makers, funds, and high-volume professional traders that need reliable accounting records, recurring reconciliation, period-end close, and financial reporting for prediction-market activity.

Common Prediction Market Accounting Challenges We Solve

Patrick Camuso, Forbes 2025 Best-in-State Top CPA was featured in Forbes for leading the charge on crypto accounting
Patrick Camuso, CPA. Featured in Forbes for Leading the Charge on Crypto Accounting.

Ready to Get Your Prediction Market Accounting in Order?

Prediction Market Accounting Services

Accounting services for professional prediction-market trading firms, market makers, funds, and high-volume traders.

Prediction Market Accounting & Reconciliation

Transaction reconstruction, venue and cash reconciliation, open-position rollforwards, fee and rebate accounting, and other work required to produce supportable prediction-market accounting records.

Subledger & General-Ledger Accounting

Transaction-level subledger accounting and general-ledger integration for prediction-market activity, including account mapping, venue-level reporting, and records that support period-end close and financial reporting.

Ongoing Accounting & Period-End Close

Recurring monthly or quarterly accounting, reconciliation, open-position reporting, general-ledger close, financial reporting, and year-end workpaper support for trading firms and market makers.

Book-to-Tax & Year-End Support

Accounting workpapers and reconciliations that connect the prediction-market books to tax reporting, including support for entity and owner reporting and coordination with the firm’s federal and state tax compliance.

Why Prediction Market Trading Firms Work With Camuso CPA

Professional prediction-market firms may need accounting that can support high transaction volume, automated trading, multiple venues, open positions, maker rebates, liquidity incentives, and recurring financial reporting.

Camuso CPA works from the underlying trading records through reconciliation, subledger and general-ledger accounting, period-end close, financial reporting, and year-end workpapers. Because our practice also handles the related federal tax work, the accounting records can be maintained in a manner that supports the firm’s book-to-tax reporting and adopted tax positions.

Service Camuso CPA General CPA / Accounting Firm
Prediction-market transaction reconstruction Varies
Venue and cash reconciliation Varies
Prediction-market subledger accounting Varies
Market-maker and high-volume trading accounting Varies
Open-position rollforwards and period-end reporting Varies
Ongoing monthly or quarterly close Varies
General-ledger integration and financial reporting Varies
Maker rebate and liquidity-incentive accounting Varies
Book-to-tax workpapers and year-end support Varies
Prediction-market federal tax coordination Limited
Prediction Market Accounting

Case Study

Institutional Prediction-Market Market Maker — Millions of Fills and Ongoing Accounting

Client Type Quantitative Market-Making Firm
Activity Automated Market Making
Scale Millions of Fills
Scope Historical & Ongoing Accounting

The Problem

The firm had scaled its prediction-market trading activity before a corresponding accounting process had been established. Nearly two years of high-volume market-making activity had not been incorporated into the books, and no commercial accounting system was designed to process the firm's prediction-market transaction data at the required level of detail.

What We Did

Camuso CPA developed a transaction-level prediction-market subledger for the firm's market-making activity, reconstructed the historical trading records, and established the accounting needed to reconcile the trading activity into the general ledger. The resulting records also support the firm's year-end workpapers and related tax reporting.

The Outcome

The historical prediction-market activity was incorporated into the firm's books, the accounting methodology was implemented for continuing use, and Camuso CPA now manages the firm's ongoing accounting together with quarterly tax projections and provisions.

Prediction Market Accounting Guides & Technical Analysis

Camuso CPA publishes technical analysis on the accounting, reconciliation, financial reporting, and related tax issues affecting professional prediction-market activity. These resources address transaction-level records, subledger and general-ledger accounting, period-end close, multi-venue activity, year-end workpapers, and the federal tax questions that depend on the underlying accounting records.

Prediction Market Accounting: A Technical Guide for Traders, Funds, and Institutions
State of U.S. Prediction-Market Tax and Accounting 2026

Section 1256 and Prediction Markets: Do Kalshi and Event Contracts Qualify?

Get Your Prediction Market Accounting Right

We help professional prediction-market trading firms and traders establish and maintain accounting records that support reconciliation, period-end close, financial reporting, and year-end tax workpapers.

Prediction Market Accounting FAQ

Prediction market accounting is the process of recording, reconciling, and reporting prediction-market trading activity in the books of a trader, trading firm, fund, or market maker.

For professional firms, that can include executions, open and resolved positions, venue and cash balances, fees, maker rebates, liquidity incentives, transfers, and other trading activity that must ultimately be reflected in the subledger, general ledger, period-end close, and financial reporting.

Platform reports are useful source records, but they are not necessarily a complete accounting system.

Professional firms may still need to reconcile executions, positions, settlements, cash movements, fees, rebates, incentives, and venue balances to the entity’s books. The required accounting detail may also exceed what is presented in summary platform reports, particularly for high-volume or multi-venue activity.

The scope depends on the firm’s trading activity and existing records.

An engagement may include historical reconstruction, transaction-level reconciliation, prediction-market subledger accounting, general-ledger integration, account mapping, open-position rollforwards, period-end close, financial reporting, year-end workpapers, and coordination with the related tax reporting.

Recurring engagements may also include monthly or quarterly accounting and close support.

Yes.

Depending on the engagement, Camuso CPA can provide recurring transaction reconciliation, subledger maintenance, general-ledger accounting, monthly or quarterly close, financial reporting support, book-to-tax workpapers, and year-end accounting support.

For professional trading firms and market makers, the accounting relationship can continue throughout the year rather than being limited to a historical cleanup or year-end project.

Market makers and high-volume trading firms may require transaction-level accounting capable of supporting large execution volumes, frequent position changes, open positions, fees, maker rebates, liquidity incentives, and multiple venues.

The accounting methodology should reflect the firm’s actual trading activity and reporting requirements. For some firms, this requires a dedicated prediction-market subledger beneath the general ledger rather than relying on summary bookkeeping or platform-level P&L alone.

Trading across multiple venues requires the underlying activity to be reconciled despite differences in data formats, settlement mechanics, currencies, cash or wallet activity, and platform reporting.

The accounting should maintain sufficient venue-level detail to reconcile the source activity while producing consistent reporting in the firm’s general ledger and financial statements.

A prediction-market subledger is the transaction-level accounting record that sits beneath the general ledger and preserves the detail needed to support trading balances and period-end reporting.

Depending on the firm, the subledger may track executions, positions, resolutions, fees, rebates, incentives, cash movements, and other activity required to reconcile the trading operation and support the resulting general-ledger entries.

Yes.

Where prior prediction-market activity has not been incorporated into the books or existing records do not reconcile, Camuso CPA can work from available source records to reconstruct the trading history, identify differences, establish supportable accounting records, and incorporate the resulting activity into the general ledger.

The scope depends on the quality and completeness of the available venue, cash, wallet, and internal records.

The accounting records establish many of the facts on which the federal tax analysis depends.

Depending on the issue, those records may need to identify the contracts traded, position changes, transaction endpoints, amounts paid or received, fees, rebates, incentives, and how the activity was reflected in the books.

Camuso CPA provides both prediction-market accounting and federal tax services, allowing the book-to-tax workpapers and filed returns to be prepared from the same underlying accounting records.

Ideally before transaction volume, additional venues, market-making activity, or year-end reporting make the records difficult to reconstruct.

Common triggers include rapid growth in trading volume, beginning automated or market-making strategies, expanding across venues, adding owners or entities, raising outside capital, preparing for audit or diligence, establishing recurring financial reporting, or approaching year-end without reconciled books.

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