Quick Answer Patrick Camuso’s co-authored article with Sulolit Mukherjee has been published in Tax Notes Federal: “Prediction Market Event Contracts: A Tax Classification Analysis.” This prediction market tax analysis examines […]
Quick Answer What Robinhood provides: An Event Contracts Annual Statement. Not a 1099-B or a 1099-DA. Robinhood explicitly states it is not a substitute tax reporting form. Taxpayers are left […]
Quick Answer What this article addresses: What happens when a prediction market tax position filed in a prior year gets challenged or recharacterized, including Section 1256 treatment. This article is […]
Quick Answer What this article addresses: Can prediction market activity qualify as a trade or business, and what changes if it does. Trade-or-business status is possible, and the answer depends […]
Quick Answer What HIP-4 is: Hyperliquid’s outcome market framework, announced in September 2025, live on testnet in February 2026, and now rolling out on mainnet in stages, introduces binary outcome […]
Quick Answer Wired published a piece examining the tax reporting challenges facing prediction market traders following the explosive growth of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Patrick Camuso, CPA was quoted […]
Quick Answer The short answer: It depends on how your prediction market activity is characterized, on your capacity as a taxpayer, and on how each position ended, and the rules […]
Quick Answer Are Polymarket winnings taxable? Yes. Gains from Polymarket activity are taxable for U.S. taxpayers even when the platform does not issue a tax form. The absence of a […]
Quick Answer The short answer: It depends and the IRS has not told you which answer applies. What the question actually means: Whether prediction market profits are taxed as gambling […]
Quick Answer Prediction markets now operate within formal regulatory infrastructure and, in certain instances, under direct CFTC supervision. Platforms such as Kalshi function as Designated Contract Markets and list standardized […]
