Gemini Predictions: Taxes, IRS Reporting & Records

Last Updated on November 6, 2026 by Patrick Camuso, CPA

How Gemini event contracts are reported and what records to keep.

Quick Answer

Gemini Predictions activity can produce gains, losses and other amounts that require federal income tax analysis. Treatment depends on the contract, the taxpayer’s circumstances and how the position was acquired and concluded. Depending on those facts, relevant provisions may include IRC §165(d), general capital and ordinary income rules, §1234A, §1256 and, for qualifying taxpayers and instruments, §475.

Gemini Predictions operates through Gemini Titan, LLC, a CFTC designated contract market. Gemini Olympus, LLC is the registered derivatives clearing organization currently used for clearing. Gemini also provides Predictions specific transaction records and API data covering orders, positions, payouts and platform calculated cost and profit information.

Gemini separately publishes Form 1099-DA guidance for qualifying digital asset transactions. Its public Predictions materials reviewed through November 6, 2026 do not identify one specific information return for ordinary Predictions purchases, sales and settlements. Taxpayers should preserve the Predictions records and review any tax documents actually furnished for their accounts.

How Gemini Predictions Works

Gemini launched Predictions on December 15, 2025 after Gemini Titan received its CFTC designation as a contract market on December 10.

The product allows customers to trade event contracts tied to defined future outcomes. Standard binary contracts use Yes and No positions, with prices formed through market bids and offers. Settlement follows the terms and resolution criteria for the particular contract.

Gemini’s clearing structure changed during 2026. Gemini Olympus received DCO registration on April 29, and Gemini announced that the clearinghouse began operating on August 4. Historical transactions should be supported using the exchange and clearing arrangements that applied at the time.

Customers trade Predictions using USD balances on the Gemini platform. A contract that references Bitcoin, Ether or another digital asset remains an event contract. It does not give the customer ownership of the referenced asset.

Keep Cryptocurrency and Predictions Activity Separate

A Gemini customer may sell cryptocurrency and later use the resulting USD to purchase a Predictions contract. The two transactions require separate records.

The cryptocurrency disposition should be supported by the asset sold, adjusted basis, amount realized and related costs. The Predictions purchase should be supported by the contract, quantity, execution price and fees.

Later activity should be recorded the same way. If the event contract is sold before resolution, retain the sale records and proceeds. If it remains open through settlement, retain the contract terms, resolution information and payment received.

Cash movements within the broader Gemini account should also reconcile to those transactions. The records for digital assets, event contracts and cash should remain separately identifiable.

Preserve the Trading and Settlement History

Gemini’s documentation separates order execution, market close, resolution and settlement.

A position begins when an order executes. Additional trades may increase or reduce the position while trading remains open. After the market closes, the outcome is determined under the contract rules and settlement follows.

For a position sold before resolution, retain the original execution, subsequent sale, quantities, prices, dates and fees. For a position held through settlement, retain the contract terms, resolution source and amount paid.

Positions open at year end should remain identifiable. A contract purchased in December for an event resolving in January may have a changing market value even though it has not been sold or settled. Federal recognition depends on the contract, taxpayer and any applicable tax method or statutory rule.

Execution, close, resolution and settlement timestamps should be retained where timing may affect the reporting period.

What Records Gemini Provides

Gemini provides Predictions information through its customer interface and developer APIs.

Transaction History includes Predictions activity and payouts. Gemini’s APIs provide additional records for orders, positions and settled contracts. Order history distinguishes filled activity from canceled orders, which helps establish the quantity actually acquired or sold.

The settled position endpoint includes payout and contract information together with fields such as costBasis, realizedPnl and netProfit where available. It can also return information about early exits through its optional cash out functionality.

Gemini currently limits settled position results to the preceding year. Taxpayers with material activity should preserve detailed records while they remain available.

For higher volume accounts, the API data should reconcile to the underlying executions and account balances.

Gemini Cost Basis and P&L Fields

Gemini’s API uses fields including costBasis, realizedPnl and netProfit to describe the economics of a position.

Those calculations can help with reconciliation. Federal tax basis, recognition and character still depend on the underlying transactions and applicable tax rules.

A position may be partially sold before resolution while the remaining contracts are held through settlement. Gemini may present that activity at the position level, while the tax workpapers may need to preserve the individual transactions that produced the result.

The platform calculations should be retained with the execution and settlement records that support them.

Our Prediction Market Accounting Guide discusses the relationship between venue records, trading subledgers and federal tax reporting.

What Tax Forms Does Gemini Provide for Predictions?

Gemini publishes tax guidance for its digital asset business, including Form 1099-DA reporting for qualifying digital asset dispositions.

That guidance applies to the transactions it covers. A Predictions contract remains a separate contractual instrument even when its reference event concerns Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

As of November 6, 2026, Gemini’s public Predictions materials do not identify one specific information return used for ordinary event contract purchases, sales or settlements.

Taxpayers should review any tax documents furnished for their accounts and reconcile them to the underlying activity. A customer who sells cryptocurrency and later uses USD to acquire an event contract may have records from both reporting systems, and each transaction should remain separately supportable.

For a broader discussion, see our Prediction Market Tax Documents Guide.

How Are Gemini Predictions Taxed?

Federal treatment should be evaluated using the particular contracts and transactions involved.

Relevant facts include the contractual rights and obligations, taxpayer capacity, exchange structure and how the position was acquired and concluded. Potentially relevant provisions include §165(d), general capital and ordinary income rules, §1234A, §1256 and §475.

Section 165(d)

Section 165(d) may require consideration for particular event contracts.

The analysis depends on the contract and transaction, including the rights created, reference event, market structure and manner in which the position is resolved.

Where §165(d) applies, the current loss limitation can materially affect the federal result. For taxable years beginning after December 31, 2025, deductible wagering losses are generally limited to 90% of qualifying losses and may not exceed gains from wagering transactions. Certain otherwise allowable deductions incurred in carrying on wagering transactions are included within that limitation.

Capital and Ordinary Characterization

Where §165(d) does not govern the transaction, the general federal rules applicable to contractual property may require consideration.

An acquired contractual right may implicate §1221 and related authorities. How the position is concluded can also affect the analysis. A disposition before resolution can present different questions from contractual settlement or another form of termination.

Section 1234A may apply to certain terminations where its statutory requirements are satisfied. Taxpayer capacity and other provisions can affect the result as well.

Our Prediction Market Tax Guide examines these issues in greater depth.

Section 1256

Gemini Titan’s DCM status is relevant to the §1256 analysis.

The contract must still fall within an affirmative statutory category and satisfy the requirements associated with that category. For a regulated futures contract, the statute includes requirements involving the qualified exchange and the applicable mark to market or margin system. Section 1256 also contains exclusions for specified swaps and similar agreements.

The tax file should preserve the contract specifications and exchange treatment needed to perform that analysis.

Our Section 1256 and Prediction Markets Guide examines those requirements in greater detail.

Section 475

Section 475 imposes mark to market rules on dealers in securities and provides elective mark to market regimes for qualifying dealers in commodities and qualifying traders in securities or commodities.

Application depends on the taxpayer, the instruments involved and any applicable election requirements. Trading volume, API activity and liquidity participation may be relevant facts within that analysis.

Our Prediction Market Tax Guide addresses the broader federal framework.

Gemini Predictions Fees and Incentives

Gemini publishes a separate fee schedule for Predictions. The schedule uses different maker and taker rates and calculates fees based on contract quantity and execution price.

For historical transactions, retain the fee actually charged with the execution. Fee schedules and promotional arrangements can change during the year.

Gemini currently documents a maker fee waiver for qualifying maker side trades through December 31, 2026. Its developer materials also state that the Liquidity Rewards Program pauses beginning November 6, 2026.

Maker rebates, taker rewards and other incentive payments should remain separately identifiable in the records. Their tax treatment depends on the terms of the payment and the activity that produced it.

Our Prediction Market Maker Rebates and Incentives Tax Guide examines those issues in greater detail.

Recordkeeping for Higher Volume Accounts

Higher volume Gemini Predictions activity can require more detailed records than an annual performance summary.

The tax file should preserve the contracts traded, quantities, prices, fees, position changes, early sales, settlements and year end open positions. Rebates, rewards and other incentive payments should remain separately identifiable where material.

For an entity, the exchange records should reconcile to the trading subledger, account balances and general ledger. Gemini’s one year settled position API limit makes historical preservation especially important where records may later be needed for amended returns or substantiation.

If the same account also contains cryptocurrency trading, those transactions should remain distinguishable from the Predictions activity. The same approach applies where the taxpayer trades event contracts across several venues.

Final Thoughts

Gemini combines cryptocurrency and event contract trading within one broader platform. The tax records should identify each transaction according to what actually occurred.

For Predictions activity, preserve the contract, executions, fees, position changes, settlement records and incentives needed to explain the annual result. Where cryptocurrency was sold to fund the account, keep that transaction separately supportable.

Gemini’s transaction history and API data provide useful accounting records. Federal treatment depends on the contracts, transactions, taxpayer circumstances and applicable authorities.

Frequently Asked Questions About Gemini Predictions Taxes

Does Gemini issue a Form 1099 for Predictions?

Gemini’s current public Predictions materials do not identify one specific information return for ordinary event contract purchases, sales or settlements. Gemini separately publishes Form 1099-DA guidance for qualifying digital asset activity.

Does Gemini report Predictions activity to the IRS?

Gemini publicly documents information reporting for several types of account activity. Its current Predictions materials do not fully describe the information return treatment for ordinary event contracts. Taxpayers should review the documents actually furnished for their accounts.

Are Gemini Predictions contracts cryptocurrency?

No. Gemini Predictions contracts are event contracts tied to defined outcomes. A contract referencing the future price of Bitcoin does not give the holder ownership of Bitcoin.

Are Gemini Predictions taxed like cryptocurrency?

The transactions involve different instruments. A cryptocurrency disposition and an event contract sale or settlement should each be analyzed under the federal rules applicable to that transaction.

Where can I find Gemini Predictions transaction history?

Gemini directs customers to Transaction History for Predictions activity and payouts. Its API provides additional information concerning orders, positions and settled contracts. The settled position endpoint currently limits results to the preceding year.

Does Gemini calculate cost basis and profit for Predictions?

Gemini’s settled position API includes costBasis, realizedPnl and netProfit fields where available. These calculations can assist with reconciliation. Federal tax basis and character should be supported by the underlying transactions and applicable tax rules.

What records should Gemini Predictions traders preserve?

Retain the contracts, executions, dates, quantities, prices, fees, position changes, early sales, settlements, incentive payments and year end open positions needed to explain the annual result.

Prediction Market Accounting and Tax Services

Camuso CPA works with taxpayers with material prediction market activity on transaction accounting, reconciliation, federal tax characterization and reporting.

Where Gemini Predictions records are incomplete or account activity does not reconcile, the work may begin with Prediction Market Accounting and transaction reconstruction. Where the records are established but the federal treatment requires additional analysis, the work may involve Prediction Market Tax Reporting or contract specific tax research.